On May 22, 2025, I appeared on TVC’s Politics Tonight to discuss the recent defections into the APC and the concerns surrounding the emergence of a one-party state. The anchor asked whether I found it problematic that some politicians frequently move from one party to another. I responded in the negative, explaining that what we are witnessing is a natural phenomenon linked to Nigeria’s evolving democratic landscape.
Democracy, like all living organisms, undergoes growth and transformation. In biological terms, human beings and animals begin life through conception, followed by fetal development, birth, and subsequent stages—toddlerhood, infancy, adolescence, young adulthood, and eventually full-fledged maturity. Adolescence, often marked by instability and turbulence, presents challenges that many struggle to overcome. Some successfully navigate this transition, while others falter. Similarly, Nigeria’s democracy, still in its formative years, is experiencing growing pains.
Democracy is a social science, situated between natural science and sociology. Thus, the fluidity we observe in Nigerian politics—what some interpret as inconsistency in political affiliations—is not cause for despair, hopelessness, or despondency. Rather, it is indicative of a system still learning, refining itself, and gradually stabilizing. At 25 years old, Nigeria’s democracy is akin to a young adult finding its footing. While setbacks occur, recovery follows, allowing progress to take shape.
Nigeria transitioned to democracy in 1999, marking the beginning of the Fourth Republic. Since then, the country has witnessed multiple peaceful transitions of power, including the historic 2015 election, where an opposition party defeated an incumbent for the first time.
However, challenges remain, such as fluctuating voter turnout, which dropped from 69% in 2003 to 35% in 2023.
This reflects both political disengagement and evolving democratic participation.
Additionally, Nigeria’s democracy has been shaped by its history of military rule, which lasted for nearly 30 years before the transition to civilian governance.
The influence of ethnicity, regional disparities, and economic factors continues to play a role in political affiliations and defections.
As democracy matures, political parties will likely become more ideologically distinct, reducing the fluidity seen today.
With time, Nigeria’s political landscape will mature, and its politicians will become more attuned to democratic ideals. The perceived instability today, often seen as erratic political behavior, will gradually dissipate. As our democracy evolves over the next 25 years or more, we can expect greater ideological consistency and institutional stability, fostering a more robust and enduring political culture.
@ Okoi Obono-Obla
Disclaimer: The opinion expressed in this article is strictly that of the author, Chief Okoi Obono-Obla, and does not represent TheLumineNews, its agent or the organization the author works for