by OGOJA/YALA BYE ELECTION AS A LITMUS TEST.
The much anticipated Ogoja/Yala Federal Constituency bye election has finally come and gone. The uncertainties surrounding the outcome, whether the result as announced by INEC is final or there may be a redress at the Election Petition Tribunal is left for the future.
The election may have been concluded and a winner declared by INEC, but a good look at some facts and figures may leave us with a different impression other than the earlier assumption that the party who emerged winner determines the overall outcome of the 2023 election.
From what was declared by INEC, the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) Chief Jude Ngaji scored a total of 22,778(52.5%) to beat his closest rival, the candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) Hon. Mike Usibe who scored 20,590(47.5%). The percentage margin between the candidates is just (5.05%).
Judging by the fact that the candidate of the APC is a very popular personality and someone who is contesting for the second time in less than four years, 5.05% is rather a margin too insignificant to celebrate, especially by a ruling party. The implication of this is that, only Chief Jude Ngaji who currently enjoys goodwill across parties can win any election for the ruling party.
Again, it is on record that Ogoja/Yala currently constitute over 65% of the state appointees in Northern Senatorial District, with Yala LGA dominating in some key strategic appointments. Having people such as; the former DG of Due Process, now APC Chairman, the sacked senator, returned as SUBEB Chairman, CRUTECH Vice Chancellor and other high profile appointees all from Yala. One would ordinarily have expected a landslide margin, but the reality at hand is rather shocking.
The most recent appointment which was released on the eve of the bye election numbering up to 93 appointees had Ogoja/Yala topping the list as always. Some of us expected the new appointees to show appreciation by harvesting adequate votes. But the lean margin of 5.05% is a clear indication that the Governor’s concentration of his appointment in his preferred location has not yielded bountifully.
In 2023, APC members in places like Bekwarra must brace up for a tough time. As currently constituted, Bekwarra sits at the lowest rung on the list of appointees.With just two Commissioners, a Senior Special Adviser and other appointees of Bekwarra origin occupying the basest offices. It is clear that Bekwarra has not been in the reckoning of Ben Ayade’s Government. Glaringly, Ayade has scant regard or disdain for Bekwarra, same place he has claimed his grandmother hails from all in attempt to scam the people into aligning with him politically.
The marginalisation of Bekwarra people continues when he left Bekwarra out without any viable industry, except the reported groundnut milling oil factory, which he has been trying grudgingly to complete. With this stark reality, Bekwarra would have no option than to seek a new realignment as the 2023 general election beckons, with Ayade believed to be seeking a return to the senate.
This is why the just concluded House of Representatives bye election is an eye opener. From the outcome of the election Ogoja has totally rejected APC, Bekwarra is aggrieved, Obanliku is unhappy. Consequently, Obudu and Yala cannot secure him a return to the senate.
The Nigerian Police Force whose contribution in intimidating electorate largely influenced the actualisation of the lean margin of 5.05% won’t afford the luxury of sending over 5000 officers to each Local Government of Cross River State in 2023. And because it would be a general election, the possibility of having a police helicopter hovering over of every Local Government is very much unlikely.
Those planning to hide under state powers and the security for intimidation as recorded at many instances across Ogoja and Yala would be disappointed.
If the Ogoja/Yala Federal Constituency bye election was a litmus test, then APC and Governor Ayade have their work cut out for them.
Equally, the trouncing of the APC by the PDP in Akpabuyo State bye election sums up the acceptability deficit of the power of the party in the state.
Agaji Adie Ntamu (SAT)
Is a Strategic Media Consultant,
and a Seasoned Teacher.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are strictly that of the author, Agaji Adie Ntamu and does not represent TheLumineNews or the organization the author works for.
