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President Bola Tinubu’s emergence as the APC presidential candidate and subsequent victory has been interpreted in various ways. Many believe his success despite opposition and gang-up by presidential cabal makes him immune to defeat now that he’s in power. However, this assumption may be inaccurate, as the circumstances that led to his victory in 2023 may not be replicated in 2027.
Tinubu’s famous ‘Emi Lo Kan’ speech in Ogun state was a turning point as it forced President Muhammadu Buhari to steer clear of endorsing anyone. The then President was boxed into a corner where the only option was to endorse Tinubu or no one at all. Tinubu knew that Buhari’s endorsement of another candidate would have ended his ambition as well as, without it, no one was going to defeat him, and so it was. But there may be no room for this scenario in 2027.
Similarly, after clinching the ticket, another factor that worked for him in the main election was the balkanization of the main opposition People’s Democratic party into four factions; Atiku Abubakar’s faction (main PDP), Peter Obi faction (LP), Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP) and Nysom Wike (G-5). This development smoothened Tinubu’s path to victory. However, like the ‘Emi Lo Kan’, this factor may not repeat itself in 2027, as the opposition is likely to regroup and present a united front.
Moreover, the 2023 election results show that Tinubu garnered only 36.6% of the 25,586, 616 total votes, meaning 53.4% of voters did not support him. This implies that he has a significant task to convince the major who didn’t vote for him. But not only this number, also the over 50 million eligible Nigerian voters who didn’t participate in the election. This is a daunting task, especially considering the current state of the nation.
But has his performances so far achieved the task of convincing the majority who didn’t vote him? The answer is obviously in the negative. In fact, if anything, it has justified their position than convince anybody. And if things don’t change, his support base will continue to deplete, thereby strengthening the opposition and making the impression that he would always find a way to win like in 2023 utupia.
To give him any chance in 2027, the President must stop listening to the hallelujah people around deceiving him that if he could win despite the challenges in 2023, he can’t lose in 2027, and rather find ways to turn things around quickly. The hunger and anger in the land are real and these would raise more army against him than anything. Government have been realising figures to show improved revenue. But that’s not what Nigerians want, they want improvement in their standards of living, not just revenue figures.
The President must also convince Nigerians that his administration is not prioritizing regional interests. So far, his appointments have clearly defined it to be a “government of the Yorubas, by the Yorubas, and for the Yorubas.” For a complex diverse country like ours, this pattern can only lead to doom.
Besides, the call for ex-president Goodluck Jonathan to join the 2027 presidential election is gaining momentum and rattling the APC. If things don’t improve and Jonathan agrees to run, Tinubu’s chances of winning would require unprecedented political wizardry.
GEJ’s reputation as a liberal and detribalized leader, combined with the prospect of a single term that would return power to the North, makes him an appealing candidate. The South South and South East, feeling marginalized by Tinubu’s administration, are Jonathan’s strongholds. Meanwhile, the North is growing increasingly hostile towards the current President, making Jonathan a more likely choice.
Based on today’s reality, Tinubu’s fate in 2027 hangs in the balance, as his Renewed Hope policies have yet to deliver tangible relief to Nigerians. If his administration can turn things around and make a meaningful impact, the current permutations may shift in his favour. However, until then, there’s little indication that his 2023 success will be replicated. In fact, even his own actions suggest he’s more interested in his current term, rather than laying the groundwork for a second term.
Disclaimer: The opinion expressed in this article is strictly that of the author, Inyali Peter, and does not represent TheLumineNews, its agent or the organization the author works for.
